‘Modernised’ leader of centre-right party forms coalition with liberals to defeat a centre-left government that has been in power for over ten years. Sounds like the 2010 UK General Election, right? Well, it was also the story of the 2006 Swedish General Election, and on Sunday the Swedish electorate got to cast their verdict on four years of liberal/centre right government.
The news that the far-right Swedish Democrats have won twenty seats in the Riksdag made the headlines. But beneath that disturbing development, there is also some uncomfortable news for liberals, with both the liberal parties in government losing modest numbers of votes and seats.
The Swedish government was (and presumably still will be) an alliance of the Moderaterna – a centre-right party led by a modernising young leader in Frederik Reinfeldt (‘Sweden’s Cameron’), together with the Kristdemokraterna (another smaller EPP affiliate) and two liberal parties – the rural-focussed Centerpartiet (apparently the richest political party in the World, thanks to the sale of their chain of newspapers) and the social liberal Folkpartiet.
For the coalition partners, this was the result:
- Moderaterna; 30.6% (+3.83%); 107 seats (+10)
- Folkpartiet; 7.06% (-0.48%); 24 seats (-4)
- Centerpartiet; 6.56% (-1.32%); 23 seats (-6)
- Kristdemokraterna; 5.6% (-0.99%); 19 seats (-5)
So, a clear advance for Sweden’s Cameron – who almost beat the Social Democrats to top slot – but not such a great result for his coalition partners.
What are the lessons for the UK?
- First, the Coalition shouldn’t lose its nerve when the polls turn against it. The Alliance won in Sweden despite having been behind in the polls for most of their period in government. This graphic shows how the opposing Red-Greens outpolled Reinfeldt’s own Alliance for most of that period (the dashed lines) and an enormous popularity gap that emerged between his own party and the social democrats (the solid lines). 
- Second, it’s the economy, stupid. This election was fought on economic issues, and the Moderates – who hold the premiership and the main economic briefs – were rewarded for a strong economic performance after the recession. Sweden is enjoying some of the highest growth rates in Europe at present. If the Coalition can get the UK in that position, they could reap the benefits.
- Third – don’t fight the election in an alliance. The four party coalition in Sweden did just that. Whilst I can see the attractions in opposition, (particularly, in the Swedish context, the ability to offer an alternative government in the face of a dominant party like the Social Democrats) in government, a joint programme risks a loss of identity for the smaller partners. The fact that only one party in the Alliance gained votes is inescapable.
- Fourth, watch out for the Greens. They added 6 seats and 2% of the vote, which gave them a clear third place. This comes after the gains for the Greens in Australia recently, and I see they’re polling well in Canada, too. If Labour don’t recover quickly, could they be the beneficiaries of the protest vote in the UK at the next election?
All that said, Sweden’s not the UK. We don’t have PR, and we don’t have any party that’s achieved quite the same level of smothering dominance that the Socialdemokraterna have managed (not at national level, anyway), so it’s dangerous to rely too much on lessons from an alliance in that context.
The photos of the posters are from our visit to Stockholm at the end of August. We arrived on the Friday to a city without election posters. On the Saturday night we wandered back to the hotel, only to find dozens of political activists with placards making sure they got the best spots for posters at midnight, when they were allowed to attach them to the railings! More fun than good mornings, but probably slightly less effective.
